Application of Intelligence Analysis Mode in Earthquake Impact Analysis – Case Study on the Quantitative Risk Analysis of Buried Water Pipeline on Earthquake Disaster

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Research areas:
Year:
2017
Type of Publication:
Article
Keywords:
Quantitative Risk Analysis, Buried Water Pipeline, Earthquake Disaster
Authors:
Siao-Syun Ke; Ban-Jwn Shih
Journal:
IJAIM
Volume:
6
Number:
1
Pages:
42-45
Month:
July
ISSN:
2320-5121
Abstract:
Taiwan is located on the Circum-Pacific Ocean Earthquake Zone, earthquake hazard is inevitable and frequent. Earthquake events, not predictable up to now, sometimes cause huge casualty and property loss instantly. Water supply pipeline system is very important for urban living and development, but it is prone to earthquake damages; moreover, damage inspecting and restoration is quite difficult right after a major earthquake disaster. More important, even only some parts of a pipeline network are damaged, the whole water supply function could be interrupted. Thus, this research focused on the seismic quantitative risk analysis for buried water supply pipelines. This thesis first studied the pipeline design pattern and its earthquake damage behavior by referring to the domestic and foreign references. Considering the loss of water supplying function, this study applied event tree and fault tree as a logic inference. Possible seismic damage patterns were listed as an event tree and then their corresponding estimated failure probability was considered as a fault tree. The risk estimation was thus being carried out quantitatively. From the calculated results, it showed that the damage probabilities caused by stratum failure, manhole failure, and pipe breaking are 7.4e-4, 8.5e-4, and 9.9e-4, respectively. The methodology and result of this thesis might be applicable to improve the counter-seismic capability for a water supply system
Full text: IJAIM_587_FINAL.pdf

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